The Indian stock market is going through one of its most tumultuous periods in recent history. After an impressive bull run that lasted nearly a decade, a storm is now brewing, threatening to shake the foundations of what was once hailed as one of the fastest-growing markets globally. As of February 2024, the BSE Sensex index, which is comprised of 30 major stocks, has fallen nearly 10,000 points from its historic peak, marking a significant shift towards a bear market. The decline of small-cap stocks, plummeting more than 20%, further underscores the seriousness of this situation.

This crisis has historical ties and is influenced by a complex interplay of factors, including the withdrawal of foreign investments, valuation bubbles, regulatory lapses, and a profound loss of trust among retail investors. Collectively, these issues have created a perfect storm for investors, especially those who are inexperienced and new to the market.

As it stands in early 2024, the benchmark BSE Sensex is hovering around 76,000 points, a stark contrast to its all-time high of 85,978 reached just a few months prior in September 2023. This represents about a 7.5% decline since mid-December last year. The carnage in the small-cap sector has been especially brutal, with declines of more than 21% for the BSE Small-Cap Index and nearly 19% for the BSE Mid-Cap Index. The exacerbating factor is the continued exodus of foreign capital, with net outflows exceeding 99 billion rupees (approximately $1.14 billion) from January to February 2024.

In recent years, the Indian market had become increasingly reliant on domestic mutual funds, which have successfully channeled household savings into the stock market, with assets under management exceeding 50 trillion rupees. However, the structural problems within the market are becoming glaringly evident. The influx of 140 million retail investors during the pandemic, among whom many were young and first-time investors, now find themselves facing account losses ranging from 10% to 30%. This has been exacerbated by the steep declines in small-cap stocks, leading to significant devaluation of household savings that were invested through Systematic Investment Plans (SIPs). Even more troubling is the pressure for redemptions caused by these losses, potentially leading to a vicious cycle of falling prices and further redemptions.

Rajesh, an analyst based in Mumbai, candidly acknowledges the dire financial predicaments many young investors now face: “Many young people leveraged their home equity to invest in stocks, and now they’re struggling to keep up with interest payments.”

The repercussions of this stock market turmoil are not limited to just individual investors. The potential fallout extends to the broader economy as well. With the Indian government promoting ambitious initiatives like the "Space India" program and opening up the aerospace sector to private investment, the market scrutiny on IPO valuations of high-profile companies like Skyroot Aerospace has intensified. A decrease in household wealth could dampen consumption recovery, with 7% of retail loan portfolios already tied to securities-backed loans.

International fund managers and institutional investors have voiced concerns that there are no immediate catalysts to reverse the current downtrend in the Indian markets. Recent key events—such as budget announcements and interest rate cuts—do not seem to have had the desired impact. Even at the current levels, valuations of Indian stocks are perceived to be on the higher side. Added to this are uncertainties stemming from U.S. tariffs and global geopolitical tensions, which may subject the market to even harsher conditions before recovery becomes a possibility. While there may be isolated opportunities for profit in individual stocks, the overall downward trend could persist for several months without any favorable developments.

In the midst of these challenges, regulatory authorities in India are grappling with another pressing issue: the battle against non-compliance and fraudulent advice being spread through social media platforms. Recently, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) moved to ban six individuals, including one who proclaimed herself as the "Stock Market Mother Wolf," from trading on the Indian stock market. These actions are part of a broader effort to crack down on investment advisory scams that have gained popularity among amateur investors.

SEBI disclosed that these individuals were tied to an investment advisory firm that lured clients into investments by promising exaggerated returns, all while charging steep fees for minimal or ineffective trading education. Over the last few years, there has been a staggering surge in retail participation in the Indian stock markets, which has allowed many so-called “investment gurus” to leverage social media platforms to promote supposed stock secrets or get-rich-quick schemes. The crackdown on Asmita Patel's illegal advisory practices has merely scratched the surface of a much larger underground market for investment advice in India.

Financial influencers, who market effective trading strategies through paid groups and exorbitantly priced courses, have contributed to a landscape rife with misinformation. All the while, the average retail investor—often aged between 25 to 35—becomes a target for these scams, with an alarming 85% of victims succumbing to such fraudulent schemes within the past three years.

SEBI has made stern moves to regulate financial influencers, including a mandate that registered financial advisors disclose their social media activities every six months. However, while some measures have been put in place, the efficacy of these regulations remains questionable. There are still over 42,000 active stock market mentorship channels on social media, with only 15% possessing adequate compliance credentials. Social media platforms often sidestep accountability by labelling themselves as "platforms" instead of "publishers," effectively allowing them to evade due diligence or oversight regarding user content, making it nearly impossible to keep up with the spread of misleading information.

Compounding these issues, investigators from SEBI revealed that during the inquiry into Patel's illegal trading scheme, crucial evidence was found to be stored in group chats on platforms like WhatsApp and Telegram. However, these platforms have refused to provide data, citing lack of authorization under the Information Technology Act. This lack of power severely hampers SEBI’s ability to investigate major market violations thoroughly, highlighting a significant loophole in the regulatory fabric of India's stock market.

The current regulatory framework does not empower SEBI to directly access communication records from social media platforms, a power held only by tax authorities and law enforcement agencies in India. This has led SEBI to submit an urgent request to the government for the establishment of a “regulatory sandbox,” which would grant them the authority to demand the removal of offensive content and gain access to group data from these platforms.

However, SEBI's bid for expanded powers is encountering dual resistance: on a technical front, Telegram has stated it cannot provide call data due to design limitations; on a policy front, the Indian government is wary that granting SEBI additional powers could lead to public outcry. Moreover, U.S. tech giants have voiced opposition to SEBI’s proposals, warning that it could set a “dangerous precedent.” At a time when Prime Minister Modi is actively seeking technological cooperation in Western countries, increasing regulatory pressures domestically could appear out of sync.

This impasse has serious ramifications, as only 12% of over 1,800 insider trading investigations tied to social media groups have made any significant progress since 2022. Analysts widely believe that for the Indian stock market to meaningfully rebound, three critical signals need to align: a resurgence of foreign investments in technology and new economy sectors, SEBI gaining substantial regulatory tools, and retail investors transitioning from speculative frenzies to more rational investment behavior. Until these conditions are met, the ongoing multi-faceted crisis is set to reshape the narrative of capital markets in South Asia.